Notre invité sera Casey Helgeson. Il interviendra sur le thème : "Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision".
ABSTRACT: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model. There are some technical details in the paper (which can be downloaded here: http://philpapers.org/rec/BRACCA-12), but the talk will be mainly conceptual and not require any technical background. (Collaborative work with Brian Hill and Richard Bradley.)