In this follow-up lecture I first argue that chance is a complex nexus with at least three distinct parts (dispositional propensities, formal probability distributions, and statistical frequency data), displaying explanatory power in stochastic models. I then distinguish two different inquiries in connection with chance. There is first the traditional endeavour to define the ontology of chance, which has characterised much of 20th century philosophy of probability, in the form of both the frequency and propensity interpretations. There is then a distinct methodological inquiry into the application of the explanatory chance nexus to all sorts of deterministic and indeterministic phenomena. This kind of inquiry has been relatively ignored by philosophers, yet stochastic modelling is common across the sciences, including the eminent tradition in mathematical statistics initiated by Von Kries and Poincaré, known as the method of arbitrary functions.
Suárez, M. (2017), "Propensities, Probabilities and Experimental Statistics", EPSA15 Selected Papers: The 5th Conference of the European Philosophy of Science Association, edited by Massimi, M. et al, Springer, pp. 335-346.
Von Plato, J. (1983), "The Method of Arbitrary Functions", British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 34 (1), pp. 37-47.