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Séminaire Probabilités, décision, incertitude : Christian Schmidt
Nous aurons le plaisir d'entendre un exposé de Christian Schmidt (Université Paris-Dauphine), intitulé : "Time Perception: A Linkage Between Delayed Rewards and Risk Analysis in Decision-Making".
Résumé : At an empirical level, experimental economics has revealed a lot of logical anomalies in agents’ intertemporal choices (Loewenstein and Prelec, 1992). They were observed in temporal discount, as well as in risky decision–making. In each case, time perception (and, or subjective time representation) seems an essential feature of the underlying decision-making processes, either through the delayed dimension of the outcomes (temporal discount), or by means of its risky dimension (probability discount). Their similarities have been noticed from the ninety’s by several psychologists (Rachlin, Raineri, Cross, 1991; Myerson and Gren, 1995) and some behavioral scientists (Prelec and Lowenstein ,1991). The assumption of a common relation between the physical time and its associated perceived time by the individuals leads back to Fechner’ works who found a mathematical measurement of the quantitative relation between the impulse and the correspondent sensitive reactions thanks to a logarithmic formulation. The major idea borrowed to Fechner is the nonlinear relation between the objective physical (or calendar) time and the subjective perceived (or psychological) time. But time perception does not refer here to sensations in reaction to external impulses whatever, but to subjective anticipations associated to various time horizons, or to probabilistic options, and sometimes to both (Green and Myerson, 2004). For elaborate the topic, three kinds of transformations must be successively analyzed 1) the transformation of the physical time into anticipated time (temporal discounting), 2) the transformation of physical time into expected risks (weighting probability), 3) the connection between each of these time-transformations. Recent discovering about brain working in such situations, as the neurobiological processes of delayed and risky expected rewards (Schültz, 2012; Bermudez and Schültz, 2014), leads to a better understanding of their mechanisms. They provide a framework for modeling the impacts of time perception on temporal and probabilistic discount.
Cette présentation s'appuiera sur des travaux menés en collaboration avec Pierre Livet d'une part, André Lapidus et Marc-Arthur Diayes d'autre part. L'exposé aura lieu dans la salle Séminaire du Département d'Études Cognitives de l'École Normale Supérieure (29, rue d'Ulm, 75005 Paris).